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Sea Level Rise, Storms, and Coastal Impacts in Belfast and
What to Potentially Do About It
Belfast Shoreline Property Owner’s Meeting
July 6, 2022
Peter A. Slovinsky, Marine Geologist
Maine Geological Survey
Dept. of Agriculture, Conservation and Forestry
Funding from:
WMTW News Center Maine
�In Maine, sea level is rising in the long term…
�And is rising faster in the short term…
1990-2022 average: 3.03 ± 0.52 mm per year or 0.99 ft (11.9 in) per century
And can change abruptly
About half of Bar Harbor’s
observed SLR occurred since 1990
�3 of the highest monthly sea levels occurred in 2010
�In Bar Harbor, 100% of the highest monthly sea levels
have occurred since 2010, and 58% since 2017.
Highest Average Monthly Sea Levels (through May 2022)
Month Seavey Island Wells
Portland Bar Harbor
Cutler
Eastport
1930-2022* 2005-2022 1912-2022 1947-2022 2011-2022 1929-2022
January
2021
2021
2010
2010
2021
2019
February
1978
2010
2010
2010
2020
2010
March
1958
2018
2010
2018
2018
2018
April
2021
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
May
2022
2017
2017
2017
2017
2017
June
1998
2012
2012
2012
2018
2011
July
2020
2019
2009
2019
2019
2011
August
2021
2021
2011
2011
2011
2011
September
2021
2021
1996
2021
2021
2010
October
2021
2021
2021
2021
2021
2021
November
2021
2021
1970
2021
2019
2019
December
2020
2012
2010
2010
2019
2010
* Seavey Island, ME tide gauge has data gaps from 1987-1998 and 2001-2019
Occurred since 2017
Occurred since 2010
STS (2020) Table 1
updated through 5/2022.
�Four out of five months in 2022 have seen water levels
in the top 10 values for each month in Bar Harbor
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2022 Tide Gauge Water level Rankings (through May 2022)
Seavey Island
Wells
Portland Bar Harbor
Cutler
Eastport
1930-2022* 2005-2022 1912-2022 1947-2022 2011-2022 1929-2022
2nd
5th
10th
10th
5th
4th
17th
15th
56th
42nd
10th
35th
6th
7th
22nd
8th
4th
6th
4th
5th
16th
6th
4th
5th
1st
2nd
5th
4th
3rd
4th
* Seavey Island, ME tide gauge has data gaps from 1987-1998 and 2001-2019
2022 monthly ranking is in the top 5 for that month
2022 monthly ranking is in top 10 for that month
�Sea level is expected to continue to rise...
Global Mean Sea Level Scenarios to 2100
Global Mean Sea Level (m)
8.2 ft
6.6 ft
Scenarios
Satellite
data
3.3 ft
1.6 ft
1.0 ft
Tide gauge data
1900
1950
4.9 ft
2000
2050
2100
Adapted from NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 083, 1/2017
��Recommended Sea Level Rise - Central Estimates
for Planning in Maine
(averaged for all of Maine’s tide gauges)
These scenarios were adopted in the State’s Maine Won’t Wait Report
STS (2020) Table 7b, p. 83.
�Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm,
over and above the predicted astronomical tides.
Storm tide is defined as the water level rise due to the combination
of storm surge and the astronomical tide.
�Bar Harbor, ME during 1976 Groundhog Day Storm
Predicted Tide = 8.8 ft MLLW
Storm Tide = 13.7 ft MLLW
Storm Surge = 4.9 ft
Storm Tide
Predicted
Tide
Storm
Surge
�Storm Surge Recurrence Intervals* for Maine
Tide Gauges
Recurrence
Interval
1
5
10
25
50
100
Storm Surge (feet)
% Annual
Seavey Isl.
Wells
Portland Bar Harbor
Cutler
Eastport
Chance
1930-2022 2005-2022 1912-2022 1947-2022 2011-2022 1929-2022
100%
1.8
2.1
2.0
1.8
2.1
2.0
20%
2.7
3.6
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
10%
3.1
4.3
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.3
4%
3.7
5.2
3.9
3.8
3.5
3.9
2%
4.1
5.8
4.3
4.3
3.8
4.2
1%
4.5
6.5
4.7
4.7
4.1
4.6
For Maine’s coastline, there is a 10% chance we can see about 3 feet of storm surge
every year, and a 1% chance of seeing storm surges in excess of 4.5 feet.
MCC STS (2020) Table 8, updated 7/5022
* Determined from best-fit equations to available NOAA CO-OPs data through 7/5/2022
�Storm Tide Recurrence Intervals for
Maine Tide Gauges
For Maine’s coastline, there is only about a 1 – 1.5 foot difference between our 10
and 100-year storm tides
STS (2020) Table 9, updated 7/5/2022
* Determined from best-fit equations to available NOAA CO-OPs data through 7//52022
�Bar Harbor’s Highest Water Level – March 16, 1976
15.5 feet
~20% Surge
2.5 feet
What could be Bar
Harbor’s “Super
Storm”
???
High
Tide
13.0 feet
Higgins Beach - Ralph Pride
�Bar Harbor’s Super Storm?
15.5 feet
~20% Surge
2.5 feet
High
Tide
13.0 feet
King
Tide
13.7 feet
�Bar Harbor’s Super Storm?
18.6 feet
+3.1 feet
15.5 feet
~20% Surge
2.5 feet
Highest
Surge
4.9 feet
King
Tide
13.7 feet
High
Tide
13.0 feet
Higgins Beach - Ralph Pride
�“Nuisance” flooding along Maine’s coast is increasing. Sea level rise is
significantly increasing the frequency and duration of nuisance flooding.
Portland, ME Nuisance Flooding Historical Averages
1912-2022 = 3.8 hours/year
2012-2022 = 12.5 hours/year
2022 already has 8 hours of nuisance flooding
Future Nuisance Flooding (w/1 ft of Sea Level Rise)
1912-2022 = 59.7 hours/year
2012-2022 = 133.3 hours/year
Portland, ME - A. Sherwin, MCP
�Currently, there are less than 20 miles of private and public roads
at-risk to monthly tidal flooding
Deer Isle Causeway, Jack Sullivan, Island Institute
With 3.9 feet of SLR, over 115 miles of roads* could be at-risk
during higher tides, especially impacting peninsular and island
communities
*ERG (2020), p. 40
�In coastal Maine municipalities, there are 10 WWTPs mapped in the
current 1% FEMA SFHA.
With 1.6 feet of SLR on top of the 1% floodplain, 6 of these might be
permanently inundated by 2050 costing between $31-$91M to
replace*. Belfast’s WWTP is just on the edge.
Wiscasset WWTP - R. Faunce
*Maine Won’t Wait (2020)
�Compounding normal coastal flooding are greater intensity
precipitation events, which can lead to more common flood events
of greater magnitude.
Route 1/Waldo Avenue, Belfast
6 inches of rain in 5 hours (a 500-year event)
on October 31, 2021
Eric Sanders/PenBayPilot
�Sea level rise is causing more frequent marsh inundation,
loss of marsh (conversion to open water), conversion of
dominant marsh types, and increased stress to threatened
species. Shoreline armoring also inhibits landward
migration of marshes.
RCWF Marsh, Saco - P. Slovinsky, MGS
�48% of the Maine coast is made up of erodible coastal
bluffs and 1/3 are eroding and are being armored at high
rates. These features supply most of the sediment to
nearby mudflats and fringe wetlands.
Bunganuc Bluff, Brunswick, ME, Walsh Engineering
�Sea Level Rise and Storm Summaries
• About half of the last century’s observed sea level rise
occurred since the early 1990s.
• Abrupt short-term sea level changes do occur and can
significantly influence beach and bluff erosion.
• A 1-foot rise in sea level will lead to a 10 to 15-fold
increase in nuisance flooding along low-lying areas in
Maine.
�Sea Level Rise and Storm Summaries
• A 1-foot rise in sea level will lead to a 10-year storm
having the impact of a 100-year event, or a 100-year
event having a 10-year recurrence interval.
• The state has decided to commit to manage for a higher
probability, lower risk scenario:
• Intermediate scenario = 1.5 feet (2050) and 4 feet
(2100).
• Sea level will continue to rise beyond 2100.
�Coastal Hazards and Adaptation
The general process of coastal hazard adaptation:
• Understand the types of coastal hazard(s) that may
impact your property and their extent;
• Understand the level of risk for your property to said
hazard(s);
• Determine a level of risk acceptable to you and given
your expectations of the property;
• Select appropriate adaptation strategies.
Maine Coastal Property Owner’s Guide to Erosion, Flooding, and Other Hazards, 2nd edition
�Responding to Storms and Sea Level Rise
There are really only 5 options:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
Do Nothing
Avoid
Accommodate/Adapt
Protect
Relocate
Saco, ME, P. Slovinsky, MGS
�Do Nothing – given the extent of the hazard, land use type,
your level of risk and expected use of the property, the do-nothing
option may make the most sense.
https://maine.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=f52e6fa4f79b46a48203ad07cd55a9d7
�Avoid - Use hazard data and regulatory and land conservation
mechanisms (existing and new) to avoid new development or limit
redevelopment in high-hazard coastal areas
National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL)
Saco,https://maine.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=f52e6fa4f79b46a48203ad07cd55a9d7
ME, P. Slovinsky, MGS
�Avoid - Use hazard data and regulatory and land conservation
mechanisms (existing and new) to avoid new development or limit
redevelopment in high-hazard coastal areas
Coastal Undeveloped Blocks
https://www.maine.gov/dacf/mnap/assistance/coastal_blocks_1m_slr.htm
�Adapt - Consider the use of Coastal Hazard Overlay Zones to
conserve land and adapt development coastal areas
�Adapt – Consider the use of Coastal Hazard Overlay Zones to
conserve land and adapt development coastal areas
https://www.oneclimatefuture.org/wpcontent/uploads/2021/02/Appendix-C.pdf
�Adapt - Use hazard data and regulatory and land conservation
mechanisms (existing and new) to adapt development in highhazard coastal areas
Floodplain Management Ordinance Language
100-year BFE +3 ft
100-year BFE
P.A. Slovinsky, MGS
Coastal
Some communities
haveUndeveloped
increasedBlocks
ordinances to require
three
feet above the 100-year BFE.
https://www.maine.gov/dacf/mnap/assistance/coastal_blocks_1m_slr.htm
�Adapt – Adapt critical coastal water-based infrastructure using
transferable vulnerability and adaptation assessment methods.
Penobscot Bay Working Waterfront Study – Public Landing, Belfast
P.A. Slovinsky, MGS
https://www.maine.gov/dmr/mcp/news/
�Avoid/Adapt - Use hazard data and regulatory and
mechanisms (existing and new) to adapt development in highhazard coastal areas – Coastal Bluffs and Shoreland Zoning and
MGS Coastal Bluff Maps.
Currently, minimum setbacks for stable bluffs are 75 feet from
the highest astronomical tide.
75 feet
(stable)
Coastal bluff (stable)
Highest Astronomical Tide (HAT)
Marsh or mudflat
https://www.maine.gov/dacf/mgs/pubs/digital/bluffs.htm
Note: not agency policies, for discussion purposes only
�Avoid/Adapt - Use hazard data and regulatory and
mechanisms (existing and new) to adapt development in highhazard coastal areas – Coastal Bluffs and Shoreland Zoning and
MGS Coastal Bluff Maps.
Currently, minimum setbacks for unstable bluffs are 75 feet from
the top of the bluff.
75 feet
Coastal bluff (unstable)
Highest Astronomical Tide (HAT)
Marsh or mudflat
https://www.maine.gov/dacf/mgs/pubs/digital/bluffs.htm
Note: not agency policies, for discussion purposes only
�Avoid/Adapt - Consider larger setbacks (e.g., 100 feet) for
stable bluff areas to account for future instability due to storms
and sea level rise and establishing setbacks from a higher starting
point (for example, HAT+4 feet SLR).
100 feet
Eroding
coastal
bluff
Coastal
bluff
(stable)
HAT+4
Highest Astronomical Tide (HAT)
Marsh or mudflat
https://www.maine.gov/dacf/mgs/pubs/digital/bluffs.htm
Note:not
notagency
agencypolicies,
policies,for
fordiscussion
discussionpurposes
purposesonly
only
Note:
�Avoid/Adapt - Consider wider setbacks (e.g., 125 feet) along
unstable bluffs to account for further instability due to future
erosion and sea level rise.
125 feet
Eroding
coastal
Coastal
bluffbluff
(unstable)
HAT+4
Highest Astronomical Tide (HAT)
Marsh or mudflat
https://www.maine.gov/dacf/mgs/pubs/digital/bluffs.htm
Note:not
notagency
agencypolicies,
policies,for
fordiscussion
discussionpurposes
purposesonly
only
Note:
�Adapt - Use best available scientific guidance to adapt
infrastructure in high-hazard areas
Rockport Fire Dept.
The “CoastWise” Approach to Tidal Road Crossings
https://www.maine.gov/dmr/mcp/environment/coastwise/index.htm
�Transferable Work to help guide Avoid and Adapt Actions
https://smpdc.org/coastal
�Protect - Use green, green-gray, and gray approaches to
protect vulnerable shoreline areas, depending on wave energy,
erosion and flood vulnerability, criticality and other factors.
Courtesy of NOAA
�Protect – Consider the use of living shorelines in appropriate
areas.
Piloting Living Shorelines in New England
Wagon Hill Farm, Durham, New Hampshire
https://www.northeastoceancouncil.org/committees/coastal-hazardsresilience/living-shorelines-group/
�Protect – Consider using green/gray shoreline protection
structures before using solely gray shoreline protection structures.
Incorporate native vegetation to the maximum extent practicable.
Freeport, ME, MEDEP
�Protect – Consider requiring that if regrading is part of a
shoreline protection project, that sediment is beneficially placed
at the toe of the structure to simulate natural erosion of the bluff.
Bunganuc Bluff, Brunswick, ME, Walsh Engineering
�Protect – In heavily developed areas, the use of gray shoreline
protection structures should be in conjunction with nearshore
reefs or integrated living shorelines to enhance habitat.
Damariscotta, ME
Stamford, CT
Bunganuc Bluff, Brunswick, ME, Walsh Engineering
Norfolk, VA
�Relocate – In certain areas that will have unsustainable
flooding, erosion, and potential losses, consider the use of
strategic relocation of infrastructure and/or the use of rolling
easements.
Brunswick, ME, P. Slovinsky, MGS
�Additional Useful Resources and Links
MGS Hazards
https://www.maine.gov/dacf/mgs/hazards/index.shtml
MGS Sea Level Rise Ticker and Dashboard
https://www.maine.gov/dacf/mgs/hazards/slr_ticker/index.html
https://www.maine.gov/dacf/mgs/hazards/slr_ticker/slr_dashboard.html
MGS Living Shorelines in Maine
https://www.maine.gov/dacf/mgs/explore/marine/living-shorelines/
Northeast Regional Ocean Council Living Shoreline Workgroup
https://www.northeastoceancouncil.org/committees/coastal-hazardsresilience/living-shorelines-group/
Maine Flood Resilience Checklist
https://digitalmaine.com/mgs_publications/521/
TNC Coastal Risk Explorer and Habitat Explorer
https://maps.coastalresilience.org/maine/
�Thank you
Funding from:
Peter A. Slovinsky, Marine Geologist
Maine Geological Survey
peter.a.slovinsky@maine.gov
�
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51795b2d01814b8f62edcad9b755494f
PDF Text
Text
Belfast Climate Crisis Committee
Coastal Shoreline Stabilization
July 6, 2022
William B. Gartley, P.E.
wgartley@gartleydorsky.com
207-236-4365
�Preliminary Site Assessment
• Is there imminent danger to persons or property?
• Owner’s needs and budget
• Height and steepness of existing slope
• Construction access/permanent pedestrian access
• Ground cover
• Conditions on abutting properties
• Global Stability – Site History – Geotechnical Engineer
�Preliminary Site Assessment
• Hydrology
• Intertidal Assessment
– Surface water
- Ledge or Rocky
– Ground water
- Mudflats
– Outlet Pipes
- Vegetation
- Fetch
�Imminent danger to life and property.
Rockport
�Gradual undercutting due to ice damage
and lower energy wave action.
Round Pond
�Grass clippings hindered vegetation,
resulted in significant localized failure.
Cushing
�Homeowners sometimes use other methods to “control” erosion!
Friendship
�Freeze/thaw action crumbling ledge.
Owl’s Head
�Previous site after stabilization.
Owl’s Head
�Significant failure
Rockland
�Field Survey
• Existing conditions survey and topography
–
–
–
–
–
Structures
Property lines if possible
Drainage features (pipe outfalls, swales, streams, etc.)
Significant trees
Significant intertidal features (spartina or ledge)
• Regulatory Tide Lines
– Highest Annual Tide (HAT)
– Mean High Water (MHW) (Elevations published by
– Mean Low Water (MLW)
NOAA)
�Regulatory Considerations
• M.D.E.P. - Natural Resources Protection Act
– Inland Fisheries and Wildlife
– Department of Marine Resources
• U. S. Army Corps - Cat. 2 Programmatic General Permit
• Municipal
–
–
–
–
–
Shoreland Zoning
CEO
Is Building Permit needed?
Is Planning Board review needed?
Is Floodplain Permit needed?
�Stabilization Design
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Armoring Base
Riprap Slope
Surface Water
Ground Water
Vegetation
�Stabilization Design
• Armoring Base
– Heavy armoring to protect against wave action and to
provide a structural base for the upper portion of the
stabilization
– Typically stones are not less than 3’-4’ in diameter
– First course should be buried approx. 3’ (or pinned)
– Slope: Goal is no greater than 1.5H:1V
• Absolutely no steeper than 1H:1V where needed
• Prefer slopes shallower than 1.5H:1V where possible
– Slope Preparation:
•
•
•
•
Armor stone layer
Underlayer of +/-12” thickness of 6” blasted ledge
Geotextile filter fabric
Gravel/sand layer if native material is clay or clay/silt
�Stabilization Design
• Riprap Slope
– Used to stabilize slope above armored base
– Stone size may gradually decrease up-slope from armored
base
– Surface stones typically never less than 10” to 12” diameter,
with smaller stones used to chink voids
– Slope preparation same as for armored base, but begins
transition to vegetated area above
• Surface Water
– Intercept surface water when feasible and direct to
stabilized discharge location
– Outlet foundation drains and roof runoff to stabilized
discharge location
�Stabilization Design
• Ground Water
– Provide interceptor trench when feasible. Considerations
include:
• Significant tree roots
• Structures
• Septic fields or other
– Must be primary consideration when choosing:
• Stabilization material (Stone vs. vegetation)
• Slope steepness
• Slope preparation
�Significant trees and septic system prevent curtain drainage
Owl’s Head
�Stabilization Design
• Vegetation
– Protect existing vegetation when possible, except when
large unstable trees threaten further failures
– Cut back slope as much as possible (3H:1V preferred)
– Provide organic layer, 6” minimum
– Drainage
– Choose native, exposure-tolerant species
– Provide heavy woody mulch between plantings
– Protect seeded areas with erosion control fabric
– If steeper than 3H:1V, consider planting shrubs through
erosion control fabric and seeding throughout, or adding
some random stones to help hold soils and prevent sliding
– Temporary irrigation
– Replacement Trees (shoreland zoning)
�Armor layer showing riprap underlayer and geotextile.
Lincolnville
�Design section optimized for planting
South Thomaston
�Design Goal
• The ultimate goal in designing coastal stabilization
projects is to use a method that:
– Stabilizes the site as permanently as possible
– Is cost effective
– Is aesthetically pleasing to both the owner and general
public
– Is as environmentally friendly as possible to both the
intertidal and riparian habitats
�City of Belfast – City Park
�City of Belfast – City Park
�City of Belfast – City Park
Completed in 2019
Construction Cost: $80,000-$120,000
�Town of Rockport – Walker Park
�Town of Rockport – Walker Park
�Town of Rockport – Walker Park
Completed in 2020
Construction Cost: $40,000
�Belfast Shoreline Stabilization
�Belfast Shoreline Stabilization
�Belfast Shoreline Stabilization
Completed in 2018
Construction Cost: $48,000-$76,000
�Belfast Climate Crisis Committee
Coastal Shoreline Stabilization
July 6, 2022
William B. Gartley, P.E.
wgartley@gartleydorsky.com
207-236-4365
�
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2b63916887254393f7abf64bf8265d4b
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Community Climate Conversations
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Belfast Shoreline Property Owners Meeting
Description
An account of the resource
The Belfast Climate Crisis Committee, an advisor to the Belfast City Council, facilitated a public meeting on July 6, 2022, at the Belfast Community Boathouse. The meeting purpose was to present information about the coming impact of our changing climate on shoreline properties. All of the property owners of record on the shoreline in the Belfast City limits were invited as the primary audience, but the event was advertised and open to the general public. <br /><br />The afternoon began with presentations from a panel of experts, and was then opened to discussion with the attendees. It was well attended, with a ‘full house’ that was actively engaged. The presentations from two of the presenters, Peter A. Slovinsky, Marine Geologist, Maine Geological Survey and the Maine Climate Council, and William B. Gartley, P.E. of Gartley & Dorsky Engineering and Survey, are included below. Bub Fournier, Belfast's Director of Codes and Planning, discussed zoning and regulatory considerations in adaptation and hardening efforts. <br /><br />This was the first of several meetings on the subject. Future meetings will center around detailed discussions of topics of interest to property owners. <br /><br />The entire meeting was videotaped, and is available online: <a href="https://vimeo.com/727779405">https://vimeo.com/727779405</a>
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Belfast Climate Crisis Committee
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
July 6, 2022